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What Mr. Barzilai, didn`t mention or take into account,
is that the 20th century has shown that dictatorships
can survive for decades, meaning that even though the
current regime in Iran shows instabilty, it might last
for more time than is needed to arm itself with niclear
weapons. Over throwing such a regime can not be done unless
there is a serious shift in balance, that is to say, starting
a full scale war with Iran. In that case, it will not only be
a section of the revolutionary guard which is involved, but the entire iranian army, and Iran will make use of what ever military means it has. As long as the U.S isn`t prepared for such an involvement, the current Iranian regime will stay in
power, and strive to reach its nuclear weaponry goals.
Only an event like the Assasination of the head of the regime
might cause enough instability to stop the current process.
An atempt on Ahmadinjad`s life was made lately but failed and was imidiatly hushed, because the Iranian regime is very much aware of the danger of such a possibilty.


"GIYUS: What will Iran do once it has nuclear weapons?

Mr. Barzilai: Nuclear weapons are meant to deter not to be used. Iran will use the bomb to tell the world to step back and let it be. However, once they have control over such weapons, they will be much more daring and their ability to create chaos all over the Middle East will increase.

Today, Iran controls Hamas and Hezbollah through which it is engaged in a proxy war with Israel. Eventually Iran would like to replace the US as a world leader. It is already doing so in Iraq - once the US will step down, Iranian proxies will take control...."

I question this statement. Mr. Barzilai's comment contradicts John Bolton's opinion and that of Israel's best reason to preempt the Iraninan nuclear program. Ahmadinejad's stated goal is the destruction of Israel. Nuclear weapons give him the capacity to do so. Using Mr. Barzilai's logic, a weak regime would be incapable of launching an attack due to the expected cost of a counter-attack and the resulting public uprising. Iran left to its own devices and continuing its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, guarantees perpetual conflict for Israel. A destruction of either would be impossible based upon mutual assured destruction theory. For instance, if Israel truly desired to destroy Hamas and Iran decided this is not acceptable, Ahmadinjad could threaten the use of WMD to prevent a total victory. This is time-proven strategy and dominated cold war thinking. The only way to prevent Israel's hands being tied is to preempt Iran now.

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